The NFL Draft And Quarterback Wisdom

The NFL draft has always proven to be an adventure in guesswork, to say the least. The “next big thing” ends up on the first train out of town. Or perhaps the low-rounder steps up and proves that he was well worth his weight in ticket prices.

If there is any position in which this can be an utter crap shoot, it is at quarterback. Step right up, roll the dice and take your chances.

If you look at the history of the NFL draft, you’ll find a lot of first round quarterback draft picks currently or formerly residing on the “where are they now” list. It is actually quite fascinating when you consider that this more often than not reflects “conventional wisdom” for the NFL. You know how it is - “he’s got all the skills, the body type, the college resume, blah blah blah”. Talk is cheap, and there is lots of it.

Then, after he’s been selected as a first rounder, he suddenly looks no better than the janitor throwing paper into the trash bin. Well, maybe not as bad as the janitor – but you get my point. Actually, the janitor might throw a tighter spiral and fumble fewer times, but I digress.

The discussion gets even better when you look at quarterbacks that were number one overall draft picks.

How about this stunning list from yesteryear. In hindsight, would you pick any of them for your fantasy football team?

Let’s get the ball rolling on the turf.Fumble! JaMarcus Russell. Alex Smith. David Carr. Tim Couch. Jeff George. Go ahead, your pick.

And if we go further into the first round, we get interceptions-a-plenty. Rex Grossman. Joey Harrington. Byron Leftwich. Cade McNown. Ryan Leaf. Heath Shuler. Rick Mirer. Dan McGwire. Todd Marinovich. Art Schlichter. Rich Campbell. Once again, care to make your selection?

And if you’ve won the Heisman Trophy? Not so much luck there either.

To be fair, there have been plenty of fine first round quarterbacks. Hall of Fame material. John Elway. Troy Aikman. Peyton Manning. Terry Bradshaw. But more often than not, it’s a roll of the dice.

I think the 2010 draft will prove to be more of the same.

Take a look at the Big Three from the end of the 2009 season. Number one pick Sam Bradford from Oklahoma. He’s got the double whammy – number one AND he’s also a Heisman Trophy winner. Stats are against you, Sam. How about number 25 pick Tim Tebow? Old side-arm himself. Everyone’s favorite Gator, sheesh darnit. Sorry, Tim, but the Canadian Football League is calling. Ooops, probably not, they want a QB with a bazooka for an arm (step forward and take a bow, Warren Moon and Doug Flutie). And I just don’t see Tebow fitting the pre-ordained NFL mold, Wildcat or no Wildcat. And by the way, you won the Heisman too, so history is against you as well.

And then we have none other than Colt McCoy at selection number - 85? Are you serious? So you’re telling me that someone took Tim Tebow as a professional quarterback 2 rounds ahead of Colt McCoy? Really?

Conventional wisdom? (never can tell in the NFL)

An absolute steal of a potential franchise quarterback by the Cleveland Browns? (absolutely)

It won’t take long to sort this story out. See you in 2012. And in the meantime, you just might want to have a train schedule handy. Chances are good that 2 of the 3 will need one.

Photo credit: Bernzilla