The Olympic Trials Marathon: Are We Any Closer To Gold?

This past weekend, the Olympic Trials for the marathon were held in Houston. Congratulations go out to the three men and three women who qualified to represent the United States in London this summer. On the men’s side, the team will consist of Meb Keflezighi, Ryan Hall, and Abdi Abdirahman. On the women’s side, the team will consist of Shalane Flanagan, Desiree Davila, and Kara Goucher.

Representing your country at the Olympics is a tremendous honor. Frankly, being a part of the Olympic Games – on any level – is an incredible experience. But it isn’t just about representing your country. It is also about being competitive on the world stage.

There was a time when US marathoning had a high profile on the world stage. But the last time I looked, it has been quite a while since an Olympic gold medal went to an American marathoner. With that said, and the 2012 Olympic Trials now a memory, my question is this: is the United States making any progress towards truly being an international power in the marathon once again?

For those who need a reminder, the last gold medal by the US in the men’s marathon was Frank Shorter in 1972. Shorter ran 2:12:19. The last gold medal by the US in the women’s marathon was Joan Benoit Samuelson in 1984. Benoit Samuelson ran 2:24:52.

Needless to say, it has been a very long, dry spell for US running.

On the men’s side of the 2012 Olympic Trials, winner Meb Keflezighi earned his third Olympic berth with a personal best time of 2:09:08. Four men went under 2:10:00 for the first time in Trials history.

For reference, the current world record is held by Patrick Makau at 2:03:38. For those who like numbers, Keflezighi is 4.8% off the world record with his personal best – or 12 seconds per mile. The Houston Marathon, contested the next day, had a winning time of 2:06:51. Admittedly it wasn’t the same course, but how much variation really exists in the terrain of Houston? At the Beijing Olympics in 2008, the winner, Samuel Wanjiru, ran 2:06:32. The highest-placed American was a 9th place for Dathan Ritzenhein at 2:11:59. A personal best performance (and nothing short of this) in London would net Keflezighi a bronze medal.

On the women’s side of the 2012 Olympic Trials, winner Shalane Flanagan set an Olympic Trials record of 2:25:38. Five women went under 2:30:00 for the first time in Trials history.

For reference, the current world record is held by Paula Radcliffe at 2:15:25. Again, for those who like numbers, Flanagan is 7.4% off the world record. – or 23 seconds per mile. If we look at the results from the Houston Marathon the next day, the winning time was 2:23:14. At the Beijing Olympics in 2008, the winner, Constantina Tomescu, ran 2:26:44. The highest-placed American was a 27th place for Blake Russell at 2:33:13.

Since the last US gold medals in 1984 and 1972, there has been a huge running boom in this country. The number of runners has increased dramatically. The pool of runners is increasing, yet the Olympic gold medal drought continues.

The African nations dominate distance running now. These countries have a far smaller pool of runners from which to draw. Surely when you have a bigger pool of runners, the law of averages would suggest that there will be some fast outliers. Many will claim that in order to be a gold medalist in the marathon, you have to be logging 120+ miles per week. But again, if running 100 – 120 miles per week or more was a prerequisite to Olympic gold, then we still have a far bigger pool of athletes to draw from than Kenya or any other African nation.

What sets these nations apart? It is not genetics. They just do a large proportion of their running at very fast paces - and they do so regularly.

The Olympic Trials gave us a mixed review – some potential for optimism, some potential for “more of the same”. But it is the Olympic Games nonetheless, and we will all tune in and watch and cheer for the red, white, and blue. There has to be a time for the African distance running domination to end, and for an American marathoner to finally return to the top step of the podium. Will it be 2012? Or will the drought persist another 4 years?

Photo credits: familymwr